The AUD/USD pair has shown interesting dynamics over the past few days, with price action reflecting bearish pressure but also offering rebound opportunities. This article will analyze AUD/USD based on 1-hour (H1), 4-hour (H4), and daily timeframes. We will also provide price movement predictions, trading strategies, and actionable entry recommendations.
AUD/USD Daily Analysis
Trend
On the daily timeframe, AUD/USD is in a strong downtrend, which has persisted since early October. Prices continue to trade below the 9-period SMA, indicating seller dominance. However, recent sessions suggest buyers are attempting to hold the decline around the 0.6490 support level.
Support and Resistance
- Key support: 0.6490 (recent low area)
- Immediate resistance: 0.6553 (9-period SMA)
- Next resistance: 0.6630 (previous psychological level)
Technical Indicators
- Stochastic RSI: Indicates potential reversal from the oversold zone. The %K line has crossed above the %D line, providing an early bullish signal.
- Volume: Relatively steady but has not yet shown a significant spike to confirm a major momentum shift.
AUD/USD H4 Analysis
Trend
On the H4 timeframe, AUD/USD shows consolidation after previously facing bearish pressure. The SMA 9 and SMA 50 have formed a bearish crossover pattern. However, the price is attempting to approach the SMA 9 level, signaling potential retracement.
Support and Resistance
- Key support: 0.6490 (confirmed in previous candles)
- Immediate resistance: 0.6510 (SMA 9)
- Major resistance: 0.6560 (previous consolidation area)
Technical Indicators
- Stochastic RSI: Currently in a neutral zone but shows potential for crossing downward, signaling weakening momentum if the price fails to break above the SMA 9.
- Volume: Relatively low, indicating a lack of momentum for a decisive breakout.
AUD/USD H1 Analysis
Trend
On the H1 timeframe, AUD/USD exhibits a sideways movement, with prices fluctuating between the 0.6490 support and 0.6510 resistance levels. The most recent candle shows a long wick at the bottom, signaling buying pressure at the support level.
Support and Resistance
- Support: 0.6490
- Resistance: 0.6510 (SMA 9 acting as immediate resistance)
- Next target resistance: 0.6535
Read: How to identify support and resistance
Technical Indicators
- Stochastic RSI: Turning upward from the oversold zone, providing a weak bullish signal.
- Volume: Low, indicating that the price lacks sufficient momentum to break out.
AUD/USD Price Movement Predictions
Based on technical analysis across multiple timeframes:
- Short term: AUD/USD is likely to rebound toward the 0.6530 resistance level if it holds above the 0.6490 support.
- Medium term: Price is expected to move sideways until a breakout above 0.6560 resistance or a breakdown below 0.6490 support occurs.
- Long term: The bearish trend remains dominant, but potential reversals could emerge if buyers regain control above 0.6630.
Trading Recommendations
Based on the above analysis, here is the recommended trading strategy:
- Buy Entry:
- Entry Point: 0.6495 (near the support level)
- Take Profit (TP): 0.6535
- Stop Loss (SL): 0.6475
- Reasoning:
The 0.6490 level serves as a strong support that has been tested multiple times. The Stochastic RSI indicates oversold conditions, supporting short-term rebound opportunities.
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